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The U.S. men’s national team could not have dreamed of a better start to the 2026 FIFA World Cup.
After an early own goal in the seventh minute, Folarin Balogun added two first-half goals in the 31st and 45th minutes to give USA a commanding 3-0 lead at the break.
From there, they cruised to a 4-1 opening match win, putting the entire world on notice.
After USA’s win on Friday, they are now heavily favored at -10000 to qualify from Group D.
So when will the USA lose? Or, especially after Friday’s dominance, will it even lose at all?
Let’s check out the updated odds for the Americans’ stage of elimination at FanDuel Sportsbook, as of June 12.
Team USA — Stage of elimination odds
Last 32: +135 (bet $10 to win $23.50 total)
Last 16: +185 (bet $10 to win $28.50 total)
Quarterfinals: +380 (bet $10 to win $48 total)
Semifinals: +1000 (bet $10 to win $110 total)
Runner-up: +2500 (bet $10 to win $260 total)
Group stage: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
Outright winner: +3500 (bet $10 to win $360 total)
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After USA’s opening win against Paraguay, the Americans are expected to make it out of the group stage but fall in the first knockout stage game.
The second result on the oddsboard is the “Last 16,” meaning the USA would make it out of the group stage and win one knockout stage game, before falling in the second knockout stage game.
How would that result stack up against previous results? Well, at the 2022 World Cup, Team USA made it to the Round of 16, which was viewed as a stellar accomplishment.
The U.S. men’s national team currently has 50-1 odds to lift the 2026 FIFA World Cup trophy this summer (Getty Images).
In 2018, the USA did not qualify for the World Cup, and in 2014 and 2010, the Americans also made it to the Round of 16. Their best result this century occurred in 2002, when the Americans made it all the way to the quarterfinals before being eliminated.
In 1998, Team USA lost in the group stage, in 1994, it fell in the Round of 16, and in 1990, it also fell in the group stage.
But after the opening match win, expectations have been raised and a deep tournament runs seems very possible.
The biggest change on the oddsboard Friday night occurred in the outright winner and group stage markets.
USA now has the same odds of winning the World Cup as they do of being eliminated in the group stage.
The Stars and Stripes are currently both +4000 to lift the trophy and get eliminated in the group stage.
