Oil prices jumped, the US dollar rose, and stock futures fell on Monday as investors dealt with conflicting messages about the Iran war and news that the Strait of Hormuz was closed again.
In early Asian trading, Brent crude futures jumped about 7% to $96.85 a barrel, and S&P 500 futures fell about 0.9%.
The euro was down 0.3% at $1.1735, and the yen eased around 0.2% to 158.95 per dollar.
Iran rejected new peace talks with the United States, its state news agency reported on Sunday, hours after US President Donald Trump said he was sending envoys for talks in Pakistan and would launch new strikes on Iran unless it accepts his terms.
Tensions also rose after the US said it seized an Iranian cargo ship that tried to run its blockade.
The dollar’s rise took it from lows it hit on Friday when Iran’s announcement that it would open the strait sent stocks up and oil prices tumbling.
“Although clearly the news on the Strait of Hormuz closing again is not good, ships being attacked is not good, Trump again with his threats towards Iranian infrastructure is not good, the market is very much looking at this as a case of: when you boil it down, the two sides are still talking,” said Michael Brown, senior research strategist at Pepperstone in London.
“From an equity perspective, I’d probably be saying we unwind a decent chunk of the gains that we saw on Friday, which in hindsight was the market getting a little bit ahead of itself.”
Iran’s announcement that it would open the Strait had sent stocks and bonds surging on Friday and oil prices down as investors bet on an end to a seven-week war that shut the Strait of Hormuz, a vital artery for global crude and gas shipments.
“Now that Hormuz is closed again after about 12 hours of being open, you’d probably expect most of the move that we saw on Friday (in bonds) to unwind,” Brown said.
“If it is indeed firmed up that Iran aren’t going to attend (the talks), you’re going to see a much more risk-averse reaction than we’re seeing now.”
Markets rallied last week
Wall Street indexes touched record highs on Friday while bonds, which, unlike stocks, are still far from recovering their losses since the war, surged as oil prices fell and investors pared bets on rate hikes from the European Central Bank and Bank of England.
US stocks have been supported through the past week by expectations of robust first-quarter earnings, the bulk of which come this week.
The benchmark US 10-year Treasury yield touched its lowest since mid-March on Friday.
The dollar dropped as the shine came off safe-haven assets late last week, driving the dollar index, which measures the greenback against a basket of currencies including the yen and the euro, to its lowest in seven weeks. It was 0.2% higher early on Monday in Asian trading.
“The risk is that the market is getting ahead of itself … The 13-day rally in the Nasdaq is an extreme. The dollar index has fallen for nine of the past 10 sessions,” Marc Chandler of Bannockburn Capital Markets said in a note on Sunday.
