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Voters who are thinking about backing Reform UK at the next general election are concerned that the party lacks experience of government.
Reform being seen as a risky choice for the country, and the party having immigration plans but nothing else, are also potential obstacles to curious voters giving their support.
These were among the findings of newly published Thinks Insight & Strategy research into who is considering supporting Nigel Farage’s party, and why, shared exclusively with PoliticsHome.
The survey, which interviewed 2,091 people online on 15-16 November, found that 44 per cent of adults are considering voting for Reform at the next general election.
Of those, 25 per cent are ‘strong’ considerers who say there is a ‘very high’ (16 per cent) or ‘good’ (9 per cent) chance they will vote for Farage’s party.
That leaves a ‘soft’ 19 per cent, who said there is a ‘small’ (10 per cent) or ‘some’ (9 per cent) chance of supporting the insurgent party.
Allie Jennings, Director at Thinks Insight & Strategy, told PoliticsHome that the soft cohort could be key to determining the outcome of the next general election, as Reform’s chances of winning may hinge on “converting” some of them into actual voters.
This group includes 14 per cent of the Labour vote and 37 per cent of the Conservative vote at last year’s general election.
Nearly 30 per cent of soft Reform considerers say they are looking at five or more parties — suggesting that their support is all to play for.
“While this group of voters accept Reform’s strengths, they do have some clear reservations,” Jennings added.
According to the research, the biggest concern about Reform in the minds of soft considerers is that the party does not have experience of running the country.
35 per cent of this cohort said this would make them less likely to vote for the party, while 34 did not agree with the statement.
Exactly a quarter said that Reform being a “big risk” for the UK would make them less likely to vote for the party, while just over half (53 per cent) didn’t agree with that statement.
There was also some concern that Reform is a single-issue party. A quarter (26 per cent) said they were less likely to vote for the party because “bar immigration, Reform does not have a plan for the country”. 56 per cent did not agree with the statement.
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Reform UK continues to enjoy significant leads in the opinion polls and is expected to make more major gains at elections in Wales, Scotland and parts of England in May.
Recent Labour attacks on the party have focused on Reform policies and MPs being racist, while the Tories have sought to accuse the party of being left-wing and “socialist” on the economy.
The party’s rivals also accuse Farage of being too soft on Russia and Vladimir Putin. On Friday, Reform’s former leader in Wales, Nathan Gill, was sentenced to ten-and-a-half years in prison for taking pro-Russia bribes, which Lib Dem leader Ed Davey said shows that Reform is a “danger to national security”.
This research suggests that Farage’s party lacking experience and being a risky choice for the country are the biggest fears in the minds of unsure voters.
There was also a major divergence between Reform’s strong and soft support on the question of Farage himself, according to the findings. Exactly three-quarters of strong Reform considerers said the Clacton MP would make a great prime minister, while a much smaller share of soft considerers — 26 per cent — agreed with that statement.
There was a significant gap between the groups when asked about the statement, “both main parties have failed, so we might as well give Reform a go.” 85 per cent of strong considerers agreed with this statement, while 42 per cent of soft considerers agreed.
Jennings noted, however, the remarkably “sticky” nature of Reform’s strong considerers, arguing that they will be very difficult for rivals to pull away from Farage’s party.
“The 25 per cent of the public who are strongly considering voting for Reform are rarely looking back,” she told PoliticsHome.
“When presented with any weaknesses or concerns about the party, they tend to dismiss them as untrue or unimportant, or flip them around and say they are actually a strength of the party.”
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Of this cohort, 21 per cent are only considering Reform, while 37 per cent are considering Reform and one other party, likely the Conservatives, according to the research.
For these voters, immigration is the biggest driver of their support for Reform.
90 per cent of strong considerers agreed that Reform would “put British people first” and 82 per cent said this would make them more likely to vote for the party.
87 per cent said Reform is “the only party that will get a grip on immigration” and 80 per cent said this would make them more likely to vote for the party.
But even among Reform’s soft considerers, immigration was an important concern. 39 per cent told the survey they are more likely to vote for Reform because it is the only party capable of dealing with the issue.
Keir Starmer’s Labour government has stepped up efforts to demonstrate that it is taking action on illegal immigration, with Home Secretary Shabana Mahmood this week announcing a package of new restrictions on people seeking asylum in the UK.
Reacting to the survey, Paul Surridge, Professor of Political Sociology at the University of Bristol, said it suggests that for Labour to win over voters who are having a look at Reform, “the battle has to be about something else” other than immigration.
She said that with 25 per cent of people strongly considering voting for Reform, the party is currently in a strong position to return the most seats at the next general election.
“There is nothing in the current polling that suggests Reform won’t be the largest party after the next election. Obviously, we are a long way out,” she told this week’s episode of PoliticsHome podcast The Rundown.
“But that doesn’t necessarily mean that they will be the government, because they will not have many, if any, people that they can partner with to form a coalition.”
Jennings added: “It’s clear from these findings that Reform should be taken seriously.
“Almost half of UK adults are considering voting for the party, with many already deeply committed to doing so. In this study, it was clear that, even for those who are less certain, Reform UK is very much seen as a viable alternative to Labour and Conservatives.”
